Panic of 1907

Bawiłem się z różnymi wykresami, gdy nagle przypomniałem sobie o najdłuższym stażem: Dow Jones. Wkleiłem analizę dla 150 tygodni i program wypluł wynik:

DJIA Teraz:



Wykres podobny (z dołkiem w listopadzie 1907):



Z Wiki:

The Panic of 1907, also known as the 1907 Bankers' Panic, was a financial crisis that occurred in the United States when the New York Stock Exchange fell close to 50% from its peak the previous year. Panic occurred, as this was during a time of economic recession, and there were numerous runs on banks and trust companies. The 1907 panic eventually spread throughout the nation when many state and local banks and businesses entered into bankruptcy. Primary causes of the run include a retraction of market liquidity by a number of New York City banks, loss of confidence among depositors, and the absence of a statutory lender of last resort. (Some adherents to the Austrian School of Economics claim that inflation stimulated by Secretary of the Treasury Leslie Shaw in the previous two years was a cause.).

The crisis occurred after the failure of an attempt in October 1907 to corner the market on stock of the United Copper Company. When this bid failed, banks that had lent money to the cornering scheme suffered runs that later spread to affiliated banks and trusts, leading a week later to the downfall of the Knickerbocker Trust Company—New York City's third-largest trust. The collapse of the Knickerbocker spread fear throughout the city's trusts as regional banks withdrew reserves from New York City banks. Panic extended across the nation as vast numbers of people withdrew deposits from their regional banks...

Źródło: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1907

U nas wodospad zaczął się po upadku Lehmana.

Zastanawia mnie, że choć jestem przekonany, że powinny być spadki, wszystkie długoterminowe porównania pokazują, że indeksy historycznie dalej rosły z niewielkimi korektami. Albo jesteśmy w jakimś nadzwyczajnym historycznie kryzysie, który nie miał podobnego przebiegu od 1896 roku, albo chwilowo nam się upiekło i pogłębimy dno dopiero za 2-3 lata.

Tymczasem idę poczytać o kryzysie z 1907 roku :)